Indiana’s Opportunity to Become a Leader with Agriculture, Forestry as Natural Climate Solutions

By Sean Mobley

Spring has arrived. With each new year, farmers and agricultural landowners begin thinking about how the next couple of months will affect their ability to sow and reap their harvests. A major part of that calculation is the weather, and how rain – or the lack thereof – can affect agricultural operations. Extreme weather – such as flooding and drought – is the physical manifestation of a changing climate that directly impacts the economies of rural America year after year.

According to the National Flood Insurance Program, “Flooding is one of the most common natural disasters that occur in the United States, and Indiana experienced 230 flooding or heavy rain events in 2019 alone.” With an estimated 16% increase in spring rainfall predicted by Purdue University to occur within the next 30 years, flooding will continue to be a persistent problem for Hoosier farmers.

Indiana farmers will not only be impacted by changes in climatic conditions in the state but also changes in agricultural economics. Changes in the growing seasons may result in higher yields, but those gains may be offset by more favorable conditions for pests, insects, and weeds – including new types, which could require increased use of agrochemicals. The increase and variability in precipitation and extreme temperatures could lead to plant diseases, increased risk of flooding, difficulty in the timing of planting, increased demand for irrigation, as well as heat and cold stress on crops and livestock.

Tree species are expected to shift to higher latitudes and elevations for suitable habitat. Tree mortality rates are expected to rise, and regeneration is expected to decline. Rising temperatures have increased the frequency and destructiveness of pest outbreaks and introduced new pests into our ecosystem. Changes in growing seasons, temperatures, and rainfall, as well as changes in carbon dioxide and nitrogen levels, will increase growth rates for some species but increase mortality for others, generating a potential shift in the forests of Indiana and the ecosystems and economy they support.

The state of Indiana is approaching a crossroads of a changing climate, more extreme or unpredictable weather patterns, and a fluctuating global economy that makes long-term planning more and more difficult. But there is a solution that can help Indiana mitigate and adapt to these challenges—the rapid implementation of soil health practices as natural climate solutions.

Natural climate solutions are conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage or avoid greenhouse gas emissions in landscapes. Farming practices such as cover crops, conservation tillage, and crop rotation can reduce carbon emissions, protect against nutrient loss and erosion, and improve water quality. There is an immense opportunity to use these practices in Indiana, as nearly two-thirds of Indiana’s 23 million acres are farmland and Indiana is home to more than 56,000 farms.

In addition to observing environmental, health, and social benefits, adopting natural climate solutions could carry large economic benefits for Indiana farmers. A voluntary, market-based carbon-credit system could create a new revenue stream that pays farmers for adopting climate-friendly practices.

Helping Indiana farmers adopt natural climate solutions is widely supported. Polling conducted by TNC in 2020 found that 90% of Hoosier voters support providing incentives to farmers to adopt agricultural practices that capture carbon in the soil, prevent soil erosion, and improve water quality.

Utilizing voluntary carbon markets as economic incentives that encourage more farmers to optimize traditional farming practices or transition to a more regenerative model. Carbon markets are a popular tool among policymakers as well.

The Growing Climate Solutions Act, introduced by a bipartisan group and spearheaded by U.S. Senator Mike Braun (R-IN), “will break down barriers for farmers and foresters interested in participating in carbon markets so they can be rewarded for climate-smart practices.” The legislation will serve as a clearinghouse for companies and other organizations seeking to offset their carbon emissions and landowners willing to alter their farming, conservation, or forestry practices that result in monitored and verified carbon sequestration.

Similar legislation is currently being considered by the Indiana General Assembly during the 2021 legislative session. Senate Bill 373, authored by State Senator Sue Glick (R-LaGrange) was approved by the full Senate by a vote of 33-16 and was supported in committee testimony by The Nature Conservancy, Indiana Farm Bureau, Hoosier Environmental Council, Indiana Hardwood Lumberman’s Association, Indiana Corn Growers Association, Indiana Soybean Alliance, and the Agribusiness Council of Indiana, among others.

These legislative proposals would not only connect buyers and sellers of carbon offset credits, but they would also provide more resources to the federal and state agencies that would be charged with providing enrollment, verification, and technical assistance services to agricultural and forested landowners.

While challenges remain, it cannot be understated the economic, social, and environmental returns that could become realized if these programs supported the implementation of climate-smart practices to scale. The Nature Conservancy in Indiana conducted research that examined two scenarios. Across both scenarios, the most recent data were used as a starting point: among row crops, cover crop has 9.9% adoption; conservation tillage has 85.1%; and crop rotation, 96%.

In the scenario modeled where aggressive adoption targets were set at 40% for cover crops and 100% for conservation tillage and crop rotation, the benefits are large and impressive.

At the sequestration rates laid out in the reThink Soil research by The Nature Conservancy, and with a price of $36 per ton of CO2, Indiana farmers could realize a net earning potential of $333-388 million through carbon credit sales.

Nutrient loss through nitrogen leaching costs Indiana farmers $1.9 billion annually. Adoption of natural climate solutions could cut this cost by up to half, saving Indiana farmers $950 million.

The use of additional cover crops and crop rotation could save $413 to $541 million annually from costs associated with erosion and land degradation.

Insurers pay out an estimated $570 million annually for insurance-related costs of flooding and drought in Indiana. Indemnity insurance payments could be lowered by $311-357 million annually if soils could better hold water and allow for less surface runoff.

Increased adoption of natural climate solutions within agriculture can help sequester a portion of the state’s 18.4 million metric tons of CO2 emissions. Aggressive measures could sequester up to 2 million metric tons of CO2 annually.

While the climate change solution will always have to start by reducing emissions from their source, the answer to how we remove emissions already in the atmosphere is beneath our feet and all around us. Utilizing nature and harnessing the power that agriculture as a natural climate solution is an opportunity for the agricultural sector and rural Indiana.

Climate change solutions have a face in Indiana. It is the face of our public colleges and universities, our cities and towns, and the utilities, manufacturers, and agricultural producers that make our economy work. Since 2005, the state of Indiana has reduced carbon emissions by 25 percent while growing the economy by 13 percent. All over the state, investments are being made to tap into the potential of climate solutions that can also grow the economy. Thanks to the leadership from Hoosiers around the state, the agricultural and forestry sectors will soon have a leading role to play. 

Sean Mobley is a Senior Policy Associate for the Indiana Chapter of The Nature Conservancy. For more information on the research referenced in this article, visit nature.org/IndianaClimate.